The Blackhawks’ fans guide to the 2018 NHL Draft Lottery

Its Draft Lottery Day!

In a statement released by the league last Thursday, the first 15 picks of this year’s NHL Draft will be decided tonight.  Picks 15 through 4 will be announced in a special to be aired on the NHL Network at 6:30 PM CST.  Picks 3 through 1 will be announced by the league during the second intermission of Game 2 between the San Jose Sharks and the Vegas Golden Knights.

Tonight has major implications for the Chicago Blackhawks, coming after a disastrous season that saw them missing the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in nine seasons.  This draft is projected to be a deep one, the prevailing conventional wisdom being that most or maybe even all of the eventual top 10 overall picks will be NHL ready as soon as this fall.

Here is a breakdown of the bottom 15 teams from this season and their odds of landing the overall top pick:

Buffalo Sabres 18.5%
Ottawa Senators 13.5%
Arizona Coyotes 11.5%
Montreal Canadiens 9.5%
Detroit Red Wings 8.5%
Vancouver Canucks 7.5%
Chicago Blackhawks 6.5%
New York Rangers 6.0%
Edmonton Oilers 5.0%
New York Islanders 3.5%
Carolina Hurricanes 3.0%
New York Islanders (from CGY) 2.5%
Dallas Stars 2.0%
St. Louis Blues 1.5%
Florida Panthers 1.0%

Here is a breakdown of Chicago’s odds on where they will land:

1st pick: 6.5%
2nd pick: 6.8%
3rd pick: 7.1%
4th pick: 0%
5th pick: 0%
6th pick: 0%
7th pick: 26%
8th pick: 39.5%
9th pick: 13.1%
10th pick: 1%

As you can see, the Blackhawks are a lock as far as picking within the Top 10.  They have a 6.5% chance of winning the first overall pick.  Last year, the New Jersey Devils had an 8.1% chance of landing the top pick, which they used to acquire Nico Hischier. 

The last time the Blackhawks had the overall top pick in the draft was in 2007, which they used to select Patrick Kane.  They had an 8.1% chance of winning that pick, like the Devils last year.

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